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NAM Forecast Model - Accumulated Snowfall by Tuesday AM

UPDATE 3/1/09 12AM: Well it looks like the March will coming in with a bang. After a decent rainstorm on Friday evening, a multi-phased winter storm will be moving into New England and affecting Rhode Island with snow, sleet, and rain.

A cold front passed through Rhode Island on Friday night, bringing some heavy rain showers.  Temperatures will gradually drop through the day on Saturday and Saturday night as cold air from Canada flows in behind the cold front.  The first of two low pressure systems begin to affect the area on Sunday.  Most of Rhode Island will receive just freezing rain and sleet, with only minor accumulations on Sunday – except possibly more in Northwest RI, where it may be cold enough to support mostly snow.

There will be a break in the storm late Sunday and early Monday as the low pressure system moves away.  As it does, more cold air from Canada will move in, just as a second low pressure system begins to approach New England.  This system, with colder air available, will produce mostly snow for RI on Monday and Monday Night.

Overall, from compiling information I’ve read on-line, I think we’ll be getting 6-12 inches of snow total by Tuesday morning

WJAR NBC10 Forecast

when the storm winds down.  Granted, its 84 hrs out right now, so it’s hard to see exactly where the rain-snow lines will occur.  If the first storm moves slightly south of our area than is currently predicted, then we should see higher snowfall totals, as less rain and sleet will move in.  If these storms track farther north, then, Rhode Island will see more of a mix as warmer ocean air mixes in at the lower levels of the atmosphere, causing any snow to change into sleet or freezing rain (or even rain) as it falls to the ground.

Preliminary snowfall forecast have finally started showing up on the local media outlets and on the web.  It looks like preliminary snowfall forecasts are coming in.  My original thoughts of 6-12 seem to in the ballpark of what the “professionals are saying”

WJAR NBC-10: 6-12 inches for RI.

WPRI 12 Snow Forecast

WPRI 12 Forecast: Mostly 4-8 inches for RI, but up to 13 in Northwest RI and as low as 2 in Tiverton, Little Compton, and Newport.
ABC6: 6-12 Inches
National Weather Service: 4-8″ NW RI, 3-6″ Central RI, 1-3″ SE RI.
Accuweather.com: 3-6″ for the most of RI.

I’m still sticking with 6-12 for most of RI.  The first storm is passing farther east than they thought, so the second storm may trend that way as well, keeping the warmer ocean air to the east of Rhode Island.  The NAM forecast model seems to be holding steady to this thought as well.  We’ll see how right I am when its done on Tuesday morning.